SUPERUNKNOWN: Nonito Donaire-Jeffrey Mathebula Preview


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Dynamic Nonito Donaire faces a Mary Celeste-like mystery in the ring tomorrow night when he faces unknown quantity Jeffrey Mathebula at the Home Depot Center in Carson, California, in a scheduled 12.

According to The Omniscients, titles and belts are meaningless (unless, of course, they have the imprimatur of Golden Boy employees), but few have failed to mention that this bout is a partial unification of junior featherweight kickshaws. This petty distinction basically means that two grifters—Alphabet Group A and Alphabet Group B–get paid off instead of one.

Footage of Mathebula is, apparently, as hard to come across as a good sentence from a bowtie blogger is. The few clips available of “The Mongoose” reveal a towering 122-pounder with a busy jab (one he likes to alternate from body to head) and a fair counter right hand. Mathebula, 26-3-2 (14), also likes to dip to his right from close range—a serious mistake against a left-hook artist like Donaire—and often negates his incredible height advantage by leaning forward. A wide stance also brings him down an inch or two, perhaps, and poor balance when on the attack leaves him bent over like a man looking down at a shiny new quarter through a subway grate.

With 31 fights over a 12-year career, Mathebula might be mistaken for an American. At 33, the 2000 Olympian has decided to go for the jackpot instead of risking the slow returns of the “World Title” installment plan in South Africa, where boxing is all but dead on television and major paydays are hard to come by. Since turning pro in 2001, Mathebula, Brakpan, Gauteng, South Africa, has faced a handful of fighters with fairly solid international reputations, among them Malcolm Klassen, Thomas Mashaba, and Takalani Ndlovu. His biggest achievement, however, was dropping a split decision in Panama to Celestino Caballero in 2009. At that time, Caballero was considered to be the biggest thing to hit boxing since the introduction of round card girls in bikinis. Caballero is one of an endless number of “P-4-P” stars created by Ratings Panel pedants and Überbloggers for whom critical acumen is a foreign country—they do things differently there. Poor “Pelenchin,” as capable today as he ever was, now roams a strange netherworld of the forgotten like some boxing Melmoth the Wanderer. Still, going heads-up with him on the road—as Mathebula did—can only be considered an accomplishment.

In order for Mathebula to win, he will certainly have to be busier and less shimmy-minded than he usually is. Four of his last six bouts have been split decisions, an indication, perhaps, of a low work rate. Although he pumps his jab well—and steps with it—Mathebula is a bit too defensive in the ring. And the last thing you want to do is let a flashpoint puncher like Donaire set up at his leisure. Another plus for Mathebula is a real trainer/second in Nick Durandt. Durandt was in the corner when Moruti Mthalane lost via 6th-round TKO to Donaire in 2008. Mthlane had some success against Donaire before a cut put an end to the proceedings.

In the end, it looks like Donaire, San Leandro, California, will have a tough haul in front of him tomorrow night. At times, “The Filipino Flash” looks like he might be wearing an invisible pneumatic exoskeleton in the ring. Donaire can be that explosive. Other times, he tends to lose focus, and, like many fighters gifted with extraordinary athleticism, Donaire, 29, seems impatient when unable to close the show quickly. He is like a bricklayer who—mystifyingly—always wants to start at the top row. Building a foundation in the ring from the opening bell is something he should have learned long ago, but that kind of patience is as yesteryear as horse-drawn buggies and spirit photography are. Few fighters work diligently, round by round, to produce a gradual result if an immediate one is unavailable.

For all his razzle dazzle between the ropes, Donaire seems a little lost when opponents are not tottering at his feet or spluttering blood. Last year, Omar Narvaez, in a terrible mismatch, assumed airplane-crash position for 12 monotonous rounds against Donaire and came out with a paycheck and all of his teeth intact. In February, Wilfredo Vazquez Jr. showed up to face Donaire with a vastly improved defense and went the distance in a fight where Donaire wound up with a fair share of bruises to go along with an injured hand. The fact that Vazquez had previously been stopped by Jorge Arce—once a titleholder at 108 pounds!—only made Donaire look worse when the final bell rang.

Donaire, 28-1 (18), should have enough to hold off Mathebula, but—unlike most fights that come to pass—this is no walkover. In fact, this is the second consecutive Top Rank bout where the Risk Management Quotient seems slightly off. Like Timothy Bradley, Mathebula is both competent and potential box office poison. Most fights are a trifecta of negativity: no ticket sales, no television ratings, no competition. On paper, however, Mathebula is a serious test. Should he somehow find a way to upset Donaire, “The Mongoose” is also a limited future commodity for Bob Arum. In the absence of a lottery-sized payout, this is not the formula most boxing powerbrokers use to determine fights. And when promoters make mistakes, the beneficiary is the consumer, perpetually last in line among those to benefit in boxing. Has Top Rank erred here? Tomorrow night, Donaire and Mathebula will have the answers to that question. In the meantime, we should all hope that promoters miscalculate more often.

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Tags: Featured Jeffrey Mathebula Junior Featherweights Nonito Donaire Popular

  • HitDog

    Donaire still feels like the kind of fighter who could do anything at any time, but Mathebula definitely doesn’t seem like the kind of fighter it’ll happen against. Which is one of many reasons I’m keeping my money out of this fight.

  • Michael Nelson

    Hey CA,
     
    Glad you pointed me to some video the other day, cause it’s easier to find footage of Nessie than this guy.  At least for novices like me. 
     
    Will be interesting to see how Donaire does against a guy four inches taller than him, and if Mathebula’s defense is as tight as countryman Mthalane’s was, he’ll have his issues.  He’s never fought without a height advantage, and as you said, his foot tends to slide off the pedal when his opponent isn’t budging.
     
    Wouldn’t mind if Nishioka was next.
     
     
     

  • thenonpareil

     @HitDog Hi JD, 
    I agree on your Donaire point.   I’m not sure Mathebula is going to be impervious to that “anything, anytime” threat, but he looks like he knows what he’s doing in there.  There’s some cunning in him, but he’s a little too sloppy and bouncy .  I think it should be a good fight…it’s a legitimate match so far as competition goes.  From the promotional viewpoint, it makes no sense, but I’ll take what I can get!  

  • thenonpareil

     @Michael Nelson Hi MN, 
    I saw those three rounds against Celestino Caballero and the whole fight with Takalani Ndlovu, which was on Sweetboxing.  But the Ndlovu fight was pretty sloppy and I had to decide whether to discount it somewhat when breaking down the Donaire fight, since Donaire is not a pressure fighter.  If Mathebula is as sloppy as he looked in his last fight, Donaire ought to have no problem.  I don’t think Mathebula’s a great fighter by any means, but his physical advantages might pose a problem for Donaire.  In general, physical advantages are fairly irrelevant when there is a big gap in talent, but Mathebula seems like a decent enough fighter where he can put his height and reach into play.  One thing I forgot to mention is that Mathebula cannot punch a lick, it looks like.  So Donaire might open up a little more tonight.  But he commits to his jab and that’s a sound basis to keep Donaire honest, at least theoretically. 
     
    I like that possible Nishioka fight very much!  

  • Andrew Fruman

    Hi CA,
     
    I hope it’s competitive and at least a little entertaining, as the other fight on the card looks rather underwhelming.  As Michael mentioned, it should be interesting to see Donaire in with a guy that’s actually bigger than him.  I do wonder just how good Mathebula can be though, as he split a pair of bouts with Ndlovu, a fighter I’ve seen a few times, and one that I definitely wouldn’t consider a threat to Donaire.
     
    I hate to publicly admit this… but I might actually record the HBO show and watch the UFC.  I know, that’s outrageous, but it looks like a fun show and I’m tempted to go out and watch somewhere, while indulging in wings, nachos, etc.

  • thenonpareil

     @Andrew Fruman Hi AF, 
    I think it should be a decent fight as long as Mathebula doesn’t get blown out, naturally. Ndlovu is limited, but I wouldn’t say he’s a bad fighter.  And his pressure style–one-dimensional as it is–bears no resemblance to what Donaire usually does.  But it’s true, losing to Ndlovu is a bad sign.  
    Well, I guess UFC draws more women, right?  Fuck it, why not?