Juan Manuel Lopez-Bernabe Concepcion Preview

Electrifying Juan Manuel Lopez puts his WKRP whatsis on the line tomorrow night against Manny Pacquiao protégé Bernabe Concepcion at the Coliseo Jose Miguel Agrelot in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

In what can be considered something of an overlay, oddsmakers have installed Lopez as high as a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite over Concepcion. True, Concepcion only recently scored the biggest victory of his career—last February against Mario Santiago—but he is a legitimate contender whose only loss in his last 23 starts was via disqualification against shifty Steven Luevano.

At 27, Lopez is entering his prime having left little more than wreckage behind him over the course of 28 fights, stopping 25 of his opponents. Despite his thrilling style and a piledriver of a right hook, however, Lopez has run roughshod over a motley crew of journeymen and fringe contenders. At this point, only Daniel Ponce De Leon can be considered legitimate competition and De Leon is a crude wildman whose own achievements are negligible at best. Lopez trampled over him like a team of runaway chariots at the Circus Maximus. Overwhelming offensive fighters like Lopez are often difficult to gauge until they meet a better grade of competition. Other than rawboned Rogers Mtagwa, no one has had much to say in a Lopez fight except Lopez himself and the referee, who usually counts to ten or shouts “Enough!” in the ring. Mtagwa, the only fighter who offered resistance to Lopez, nearly handed Lopez his head.

Concepcion, 28-3-1 (15), represents a slight step up in class for Lopez, but probably not enough to worry him or his handlers. Indeed, Lopez, Caguas, Puerto Rico, is already scheduled to take on Rafael Marquez in September, which may mean that his team is overlooking Concepcion. Concepcion is a good fighter, but he has—at least on paper—few edges, if any, over Lopez. He is slower than Lopez, hits with less power, has an inconsistent jab, and suffers from shortfalls in height and reach. He might have a slight edge in mobility and, to an extent, footwork, but his only real chance in this fight appears to be his counterpunching ability. Lopez occasionally throws combinations while standing straight up with his chin jutting out, inviting the possibility of getting caught clean with return fire. He also has little head movement.

Unfortunately, in order for Concepcion, 22, to play whack-a-mole with that dangling chin, he is going to have force exchanges with a precise and debilitating puncher. In the past, Concepcion has not shown the kind of aggression needed to keep Lopez honest. He will have to work harder than usual to keep Lopez from getting into his cyclone rhythm. Letting a destructive combination puncher like Lopez set up and pick his shots is the kind of mistake that can leave a fighter staring, cross-eyed, into penlights.

If Concepcion bobs and weaves to no purpose at a bridgeable distance—one of his worst habits—he will be allowing Lopez to dictate the pace and create openings for blunt and blunting shots. Concepcion needs to make sure that Lopez has his punching room compromised, either by moving on the outside or by pressuring Lopez onto his back foot where he is less effective. Either way, Concepcion, Binangonan, Rizal, Philippines, will have to be a lot busier than he normally is in the ring. He will also have to tighten his right hand and keep from lunging with it as he often does. Lopez is also a sharp counter puncher, and Concepion will have to make sure to maintain his balance.

If Concepcion makes some of these adjustments, he might be able to trouble Lopez more than most think. Against Mtagwa, Lopez also showed that he might be susceptible to right hands, especially of the “where did that come from?” haymaker variety. Getting nailed repeatedly by Mtawgwa is a bad sign, but Lopez claims he was weight-drained and drawn out of his game plan by roughhouse tactics. Nor did Lopez resemble El Morro in sturdiness when Mtagwa clubbed him into staggering jigs throughout their brawl. If a fighter can be hit and hurt, then anything can happen, but Concepcion will have to work to put Lopez into a vulnerable position.

Whether or not he advances to force Lopez to trade is another question. If he does, then the possibility of threading some shots through a defensive gap rises exponentially. Concepcion also has a “Sneaky Pete” uppercut that might take Lopez by surprise at some point.

As for Lopez, he will probably come out to track Concepcion down, shooting jabs and dropping straight lefts over the top. On the inside, Lopez will crank up right hooks to the body, and it will take all the oomph in the world for Concepcion to withstand more than a few of those. Mario Santiago had Concepcion visibly hurt from bodyshots in the last round of their title eliminator and Santiago is not nearly the puncher that Lopez is.

In the end, Lopez seems a class above Concepcion at this point, but Concepcion will have his share of chances for as long as the fight lasts, and if Lopez is not entirely focused on the task at hand, Concepcion will have more than just a share of chances.

SEE ALSO:

The Overlook: Is Juan Manuel Lopez Underestimating Bernabe Concepcion?

Those Bad Bad Bernie Blues: Can Bernabe Concepcion Jinx Juan Manuel Lopez?

More Human Than Human: Juan Manuel Lopez W12 Rogers Mtagwa