Paul Williams-Sergio Martinez Preview

Sergio Martinez steps in for sickly Kelly Pavlik tonight against Paul Williams in a twelve-round bout at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

As late substitutes go, Martinez is probably one of the better choices over the last few years.  Martinez, 40-1-2 (24), is coming off of an outrageous draw against capable Kermit Cintron last February.  Martinez appeared to score a clean knockout at the end of the seventh round when referee Frank Santore Jr., after counting Cintron out, decided on a “do over” and restarted the bout.  Then Santore Jr. added insult to injury by deducting a point from Martinez in the last round, allowing Cintron to limp away with a draw.

In his last fight Williams, 37-1 (27), drubbed comebacking Winky Wright over 12 one-sided rounds in April.  His win over Wright, however, merits an asterisk due to the fact that Wright had been out of the ring for nearly two years.  Of course, that kind of qualification rarely pops up these days in the press, which is more interested in fabricating plotlines than actually thinking.  Before getting schooled by Carlos Quintana, Williams, Augusta, Georgia, was the “Most Feared Boxer” and now he is the “Most Avoided Boxer.”  He is so avoided that 39-year old Verno Phillips agreed to fight him, 37-year old Wright, inactive for nearly two years, agreed to fight him, and now Martinez has agreed to fight him on short notice and in a different weight class.  But why get in the way of good old-fashioned propaganda?  These days it only takes one win over a good fighter to become a “P-4-P” instant legend, and, to his credit, Williams has that after posting an exciting win over Antonio Margarito in 2007.  Kelly Pavlik only added to this rickety myth with his shenanigans.

As for the fight itself, it should be an interesting contrast in styles.  Martinez, 34, is a shifty southpaw who might be able to emulate Carlos Quintana to an extent, but Quintana appears to be a heavier puncher at welterweight than Martinez is at middleweight.  Quintana slowed Williams down with his thudding shots in winning a clear decision in 2008.  Williams came back to destroy Quintana six months later, scoring two knockdowns and avenging his first defeat in less than three minutes, an impressive accomplishment.

It remains to be seen if Martinez can be effective on short notice and at the highest weight of his career.  Martinez is from the flashy “hands-dangling-at-the-sides” school of boxing, but he may not want to be that flashy with Williams, whose incredible reach forces all boxers to reassess their spatial ability.  If Martinez misjudges distance with his hands by his waist, he will pay for it.  Martinez has the edge in footwork and handspeed and Williams, 28, gets the nod in the power department.

Defensively, Williams is no Pernell Whitaker and in the brief interludes when he stops punching, Williams can be hit.  Unfortunately for Martinez, Williams rarely stops punching. It will be up to Martinez, Madrid via Buenos Aires, to somehow neutralize the avalanche of punches certain to meet him from the moment the opening bell rings.  His slick southpaw moves may keep him competitive during the early rounds, but Williams should be able to catch up with him as the fight goes on with his withering combinations.

The Williams camp was smart enough to use Carlos Quintana as a sparring partner to prepare for Martinez and that, along with the fact that Williams has had a full training camp, will give Williams a further edge over Martinez.  Martinez is a fine boxer, but it is hard to imagine him outpointing Williams over twelve rounds.  Williams should be able to score a comfortable decision in a competitive fight.